Share:


Sustainable development of real estate: decision support model and recommendations for the period of crisis

    Vaidotas Trinkūnas Affiliation
    ; Laura Tupėnaitė Affiliation
    ; Saulius Raslanas Affiliation
    ; Nikolai Siniak Affiliation
    ; Artūras Kaklauskas Affiliation
    ; Renaldas Gudauskas Affiliation
    ; Jurga Naimavičienė Affiliation
    ; Arūnė Binkytė Affiliation
    ; Darius Prialgauskas Affiliation
    ; Živilė Tunčikienė Affiliation

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a decision support model for real estate development and recommendations that could help Lithuania during economic crises. Research, theoretical and practical tasks of sustainable real estate development process were revised, particular examples presented. Different models and methods for analysis of real estate development discussed. Decision support model, encompassing extensive analysis of the global trends, best crisis management practices, assessment of the factual situation and provision of recommendations for different stakeholders under conditions of market instability presented. According to proposed model, the research was performed by studying the expertise of advanced industrial economies and by adapting such to Lithuania while taking into consideration its specific history, development level, needs and traditions. Basing on these findings, accumulated know-how, the results of previous scientific studies and practical insights of the other authors, specific recommendations to avoid crisis and minimize its consequences in macro-, meso- and micro- levels were provided. Recommendations illustrate holistic point of view and assumption that real estate development consists of creativity, research and art.

Keyword : sustainable development, real estate, development process, decision support model, crisis, recommendations

How to Cite
Trinkūnas, V., Tupėnaitė, L., Raslanas, S., Siniak, N., Kaklauskas, A., Gudauskas, R., Naimavičienė, J., Binkytė, A., Prialgauskas, D., & Tunčikienė, Živilė. (2018). Sustainable development of real estate: decision support model and recommendations for the period of crisis. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(4), 252-264. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.3680
Published in Issue
Jul 12, 2018
Abstract Views
1292
PDF Downloads
917
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Argustas, J. (2010). Mes klaidingai suvokiame atgautą laisvę, tad pasmerkiame save klaidoms ir nevilčiai. Retrieved from http://www.veidas.lt/mes-klaidingai-suvokiame-atgauta-laisve-tad-pasmerkiame-save-klaidoms-ir-nevilciai (in Lithuanian).

Babecký, J., Havránek, T., Matějů, J., Rusnák, M., Šmídková, K., & Vašíček, B. (2012). Leading indicators of crisis incidence. Evidence from developed countries. European Central Bank.

Balaras, C. A., Gaglia, A. G., Georgopoulou, E., Mirasgedis, S., Sarafidis, Y., & Lalas, D. P. (2007). European residential buildings and empirical assessment of the Hellenic building stock, energy consumption, emissions and potential energy savings. Building and Environment, 42(3), 1298-1314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2005.11.001

BenDor, T., Westervelt, J., Song, Y., & Sexton, J. O. (2013). Modeling park development through regional land use change simulation. Land Use Policy, 30(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.012

Bon, P. (2015). A new megaproject model and a new funding model. Travelling concepts and local adaptations around the Delhi metro. Habitat International, 45(3), 223-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.06.008

Bramley, G., & Watkins, D. (2016). Housebuilding, demographic change and affordability as outcomes of local planning decisions: exploring interactions using a sub-regional model of housing markets in England. Progress in Planning, 104, 1-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2014.10.002

Brunnermeier, M. (2008). Learning from the crash?. Internationale Politik, 63(12), 66-68.

Carmona, M. (2009). The Isle of Dogs: four development waves, five planning models, twelve plans, thirty-five years, and a renaissance … of sorts. Progress in Planning, 71(3), 87-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2008.10.001

Charney, I. (2015). Downtown redevelopment and land-use regulation: can planning policies discipline property development?. Land Use Policy, 47, 302-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.04.019

Chen, X., Wang, Z., He, S., & Li, F. (2013). Programme management of world bank financed small hydropower development in Zhejiang Province in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 24, 21-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.03.045

Choguill, C. L. (2008). Developing sustainable neighbourhoods. Habitat International, 32(1), 41-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.06.007"

Conboy, K., & Fitzgerald, B. (2004, November). Toward a conceptual framework of agile methods: a study of agility in different disciplines. Proceedings of the 2004 ACM workshop on Interdisciplinary Software Engineering Research (WISER) (pp. 37-44). California, USA. https://doi.org/10.1145/1029997.1030005

Conte, E., & Monno, V. (2012). Beyond the building centric approach: a vision for an integrated evaluation of sustainable buildings. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 34, 31-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2011.12.003

Cruz, C. O., & Marques, R. C. (2011). Contribution to the study of PPP arrangements in airport development, management and operation. Transport Policy, 18(2), 392-400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.12.001

Dean, C. A., Fath, B. D., & Chen, B. (2014). Indicators for an expanded business operations model to evaluate eco-smart corporate communities. Ecological Indicators, 47, 137-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.07.010

De Meyer, A., Loch, C. H., & Pich, M. T. (2002). Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos. Engineering Management Review, 30(3), 60-67. https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2002.1032403

Detemmerman, V. (2009). Impact of the crisis on the construction industry. Retrieved from http://eesc.europa.eu/sections/ccmi/Hearingsandconferences/Thepast/Financialcrisis/documents/DetemmermanVincent.ppt

Eppinger, S. D., Bonelli, S., & Gonzalez, A. M. (2013, August). Managing iterations in the modular real estate development process. Proceedings of the 15th International DSM Conference (pp. 37-44). Melbourne, Australia. https://doi.org/10.3139/9783446437937.005

Ettema, D. (2011). A multi-agent model of urban processes: modelling relocation processes and price setting in housing markets. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 35(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.06.005

Eurostat. (2016). Construction production (volume) index overview. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Construction_production_(volume)_index_overview

Florio, P., & Teissier, O. (2015). Estimation of the energy performance certificate of a housing stock characterised via qualitative variables through a typology-based approach model: a fuel poverty evaluation tool. Energy and Buildings, 89, 39-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.12.024

Geipele, I., & Kauškale, L. (2013). The influence of real estate market cycle on the development in Latvia. Procedia Engineering, 57, 327-333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2013.04.044

Geng, B., Bao, H., & Liang, Y. (2015). A study of the effect of a high-speed rail station on spatial variations in housing price based on the hedonic model. Habitat International, 49, 333-339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.06.005

Gibberd, J. (2005, September). Assessing sustainable buildings in developing countries – the sustainable building assessment tool (SBAT) and the sustainable building lifecycle (SBL). Proceedings of the 2005 World Sustainable Building Conference (pp. 1605-1612). Tokyo, Japan.

Heacock, E., & Hollander, J. (2011). A grounded theory approach to development suitability analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 100(1-2), 109-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.12.001

Huang, J., Shen, G. Q., & Zheng, H. W. (2015). Is insufficient land supply the root cause of housing shortage? Empirical evidence from Hong Kong. Habitat International, 49, 538-546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.07.006

Janužytė, R. (2010). Nobelio premijos laureatai moko mažinti nedarbą. Retrieved from http://www.veidas.lt/nobelio-premijos-laureatai-moko-mazinti-nedarba (in Lithuanian).

Johnson, T. K. (2009). Protestantiškosios etikos dvasia ir pasaulio ekonomikos krizė. Retrieved from http://www.lksb.lt/straipsniai/straipsnis-596.htm (in Lithuanian).

Kaklauskas, A. (2016). Analysis of the life cycle of the built environment (Monograph). USA: Nova Publishers.

Kaklauskas, A., Zavadskas, E. K., Bardauskienė, A., & Dargis, R. (Eds). (2015). Sustainable development of real estate (Monograph). Vilnius: Technika. https://doi.org/10.3846/2336-M

Kaklauskas, A., Kelpšienė, L., Zavadskas, E. K., Bardauskienė, D., Kaklauskas, G., Urbonas, M., & Sorakas, V. (2011). Crisis management in construction and real estate: conceptual modeling at the micro-, meso- and macro-levels. Land Use Policy, 28, 280-293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.06.008

Katkus, V. (2010). Dėl nedarbo kaltos vyriausybės. Retrieved from http://www.veidas.lt/del-nedarbo-kaltos-vyriausybes (in Lithuanian).

Kettani, O., & Oral, M. (2015). Designing and implementing a real estate appraisal system: the case of Québec Province, Canada. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 49, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2014.12.003

Kibert, C. (2005). Sustainable construction: green building design and delivery (pp. 448). New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Kohlhepp, D. B. (2012). The real estate development matrix. The American Real Estate Society Meetings, St. Petersburg, Florida.

Kuodis, R. 2008. Burbulai: kodėl jie pučiasi ir ką su jais daryti. Retrieved from: https://www.delfi.lt/news/ringas/lit/rkuodis-burbulai-kodel-jie-puciasi-ir-ka-su-jais-daryti.d?id=19769061 (in Lithuanian).

Libovich, A. (2005, September). Assessing green building for sustainable cities. Proceedings of the 2005 World Sustainable Building Conference (pp. 1968-1971). Tokyo, Japan.

Longstaff, S. (2008). The ethics of the global financial crisis. Retrieved from http://www.ethics.org.au/aboutethics/ethics-centrearticles/ethics-subjects/banking-andfinance/article-0511.html

Loosemore, M. (2000). Crisis management in construction projects. New York, NY: American Society of Civil Engineering Press. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784404911

Medalen, T. (2004). Introduksjon til eiendomsutvikling. Forelesningsnotat 15.08.2004. Inst. For byforming og planlegging, NTNU.

Meschede, T., & Chaganti, S. (2015). Home for now: a mixed-methods evaluation of a short-term housing support program for homeless families. Evaluation and Program Planning, 52, 85-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2015.03.009

Miles, M. E. (2007). Real estate development: principles and process (4th ed.) (pp. 576). Washington D.C.: Urban Land Institute.

Minetti, R., & Peng, T. (2013). Lending constraints, real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(12), 2397-2416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2013.07.007

Mittal, J., & Kashyap, A. (2015). Real estate market led land development strategies for regional economic corridors – a tale of two mega projects. Habitat International, 47, 205-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.01.026

Montuori, L. A. (2000). Organizational longevity – integrating systems thinking, learning and conceptual complexity. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 13(1), 61-73. https://doi.org/10.1108/09534810010310249

Nerur, S., & Balijepally, V. (2007). Theoretical reflections on agile development methodologies. Communications of the ACM, 50(3), 79-83. https://doi.org/10.1145/1226736.1226739

Ng, E. C. Y. (2015). Housing market dynamics in China: findings from an estimated DSGE mode. Journal of Housing Economics, 29, 26-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2015.05.003

Ngowtanasuwan, G. (2013). Mathematical model for optimization of construction contracting in housing development project. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 105(3), 94-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.11.011

Olsson, N. O. E., Sørensen, A. Ø., & Leikvam, G. (2015). On the need for iterative real estate project models – applying agile methods in real estate developments. Procedia Economics and Finance, 21, 524-531. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00208-7

Park, N.-K., & Lim, C.-K. (2013). Financial approach for solving stakeholders’ conflicts of interests in port redevelopment: Incheon Inner Port. Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 29(3), 315-334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2013.12.002

Portalatin, M., Roskoski, M., Koepke, K., & Shouse, T. (2010). Green building rating systems. IFMA foundation.

Raslanas, S, Kliukas, R., & Stasiukynas, A. (2016). Sustainability assessment for recreational buildings. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 33(4), 286-312. https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2016.1236086

Raslanas, S., Stasiukynas, A., & Krutinis, M. (2012). Some aspects of sustainable real estate development: a case study of Druskininkai Snow Arena in Lithuania. E&M Economics and Management, 4, 71-83.

Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2008). Is the 2007 U.S. sub-prime financial crisis so different? Working Paper 13 761 , NBER.

Renaud, B. (1997). The 1985 to 1994 global real estate cycle: an overview. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 5, 13-44.

Røsnes, A. E., & Kristofersen, Ø. R. (2009). Eiendomsutvikling i tidlig fase: erverv, stiftelse og utnyttelse av eiendom til bygging og byutvikling. Oslo, Senter for eiendomsfag.

Sharifi, A., & Murayama A. (2013). A critical review of seven selected neighborhood sustainability assessment tools. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 38, 73-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2012.06.006

Statistics Lithuania. (2015). Works of construction enterprises. Retrieved from http://osp.stat.gov.lt/en/informaciniai-pranesimai?articleId=3369780

Sun, Y., Huang, R., Chen, D., & Li, H. (2008). Fuzzy set-based risk evaluation model for real estate projects. Tsinghua Science & Technology, 13(1), 158-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1007-0214(08)70143-3

Tang, B., & Choy, L. H. (2000). Modelling planning control decisions: a logistic regression analysis on office development applications in urban Kowloon, Hong Kong. Cities, 17(3), 219-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-2751(00)00014-7

Terés-Zubiaga, J., Escudero, C., García-Gafaro, C., & Sala, J. M. (2015). Methodology for evaluating the energy renovation effects on the thermal performance of social housing buildings: monitoring study and grey box model development. Energy and Buildings, 102, 390-405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.06.010

Thekdi, S. A., & Lambert, J. H. (2015). Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 138, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.11.015

Tupėnaitė, L., Naimavičienė, J., Bagdonavičius, A., & Sabaliauskas, K. (2015). Management of construction and real estate under conditions of market instability (Monograph). Vilnius: Technika. https://doi.org/10.3846/2334-M

Voigt, B., & Troy, A. (2008). Land-use modeling. In S. E. Jørgensen, B. D. Fath (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Ecology: G-O. New York: Elsevier (pp. 2126-2132). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-008045405-4.00192-0

Wang, Q., Kilgour, D. M., & Hipel, K. W. (2015). Facilitating risky project negotiation: an integrated approach using fuzzy real options, multicriteria analysis, and conflict analysis. Information Sciences, 295, 544-557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2014.10.049

Wang, Y. (2015). Evolution of public-private partnership models in American toll road development: learning based on public institutions’ risk management. International Journal of Project Management, 33(3), 684-696. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.10.006

Wen, X.-C., & He, L.-Y. (2015). Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 432, 257-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.040

Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., & Kildienė, S. (2014). State of art surveys of overviews on MCDM/MADM methods. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 20(1), 165-179. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.892037