Impact of housing affordability and other socioeconomic variables on internal migration in Lithuania
The way housing affordability/wages/unemployment influenced internal migration of the population in Lithuania within the period of 2005−2019 is being analyzed in the article. Correlation-regression analysis is used to determine the relationships between the analyzed social phenomena. First, the correlation between housing affordability/wages/unemployment (their changes) and internal migration indicators is calculated, and the impact of data delays is assessed. Later simple and multiple regression equations are constructed. The conditions under which and how strongly housing affordability/wages/unemployment can influence population migration decisions have been identified in the analysis. Higher affordability of housing/wages is positively related to the number of people who moved to a certain Lithuanian city from other places in Lithuania per year. On the contrary, negative dependence of the number of people who moved to a certain city from other places in Lithuania on the unemployment rate in the city where those people moved in have been recorded. Both, affordability of housing and the unemployment rate explain actually 73−88 percent of variable dispersion of the internal migration in Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda.
First published online 30 September 2020
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Antolin, P., & Bover, O. (1997). Regional migration in Spain: the effect of personal characteristics and of unemployment, wage and house price differentiations using pooled cross-sections. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59(2), 215−235. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00061
Bernard, A., Bell, M., & Charles-Edwards, E. (2014). Life-course transitions and the age profile of internal migration. Population and Development Review, 40(2), 213−239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00671.x
Bijker, R. A., & Haartsen, T. (2012). More than counter-urbanisation: migration to popular and less-popular rural areas in the Netherlands. Population space and Place, 18(5), 643−657. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.687
Boverket. (2016). Housing, internal migration and economic growth in Sweden. https://www.boverket.se/globalassets/publikationer/dokument/2016/housing-internal-migration-and-economic-growth-in-sweden.pdf
Cameron, G., & Muellbauer, J. (1998). The housing market and regional commuting and migration choices. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(4), 420−446. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00106
Cannari, L., Nucci, F., & Sestito, P. (2000). Geographic labour mobility and the cost of housing: evidence from Italy. Applied Economics, 32(14), 1899−1906.
Centre of Registers. (2020). Housing prices in Lithuania. https://www.registrucentras.lt/ntr/stat/busto_kainos.php?regionId=1
Cochrane, W., & Poot, J. (2019). The effects of immigration on local housing markets (Working Paper in Economics No. 7/19). https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/19-07.html
Coulter, R., & Scott, J. (2015). What motivates residential mobility? Re-examining self-reported reasons for desiring and making residential moves. Population Space and Place, 21(4), 354−371. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.1863
De Graaf, T. (2019). Housing market and migration revisited: a multilevel gravity model for Dutch municipalities (Working Paper).
Eurostat. (2020). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
Foote, A. (2016). The effects of negative house price changes on migration: evidence across U.S. housing downturns. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 60, 292−299.
Franc, S., Casni, A. C., & Barisic, A. (2019). Determinants of migration following the EU enlargement: a panel data analysis. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 14(2), 13−22. https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2019-0010
Garriga, C., Hedlund, A., Tang, Y., & Wang, P. (2017). Rural-urban migration, structural transformation, and housing markets in China (NBER Working Paper No. 23819).
Geist, C., & McManus, P. (2012). Different reasons, different results: implications of migration by gender and family status. Demography, 49(1), 197−217.
Gonzalez, L., & Ortega, F. (2012). Immigration and housing booms: evidence from Spain. Journal of Regional Science, 53(1), 37−59. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12010
Hämäläinen, K., & Böckerman, P. (2004). Regional labor market dynamics, housing, and migration. Journal of Regional Science, 44(3), 543−568. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-4146.2004.00348.x
Huber, P. J. (2004). Robust statistics. John Wiley & Sons.
Ivlevs, A., Nikolova, M., & Graham, C. (2019). Emigration, remittances, and the subjective well-being of those staying behind. Journal of Population Economics, 32(1), 113−151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0718-8
Johansson, D., & Molander, J. (2019). Effect of house prices on regional migration: a cross-sectional analysis on Swedish municipalities (Working Paper).
Kutner, M. H., Nachtsheim, C. J., & Neter, J. (2004). Applied linear regression models (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Laurinavičius, An., Laurinavičius, Al., & Smilga, E. (2018). Lietuvos strateginio iškilimo gairės. Vilniaus universiteto leidykla.
Lux, M., & Sunega, P. (2007). The effect of housing conditions on the intended labour migration of the Czech population. Czech Sociological Review, 43(2), 305−332.
Modestino, A. S., & Dennett, J. (2013). Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43, 322−337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2012.08.002
Molloy, R., Smith, C., & Wozniak, A. (2011). Internal migration in the United States. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3), 173−196. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.25.3.173
Mulhern, A., & Watson, J. G. (2009). Spanish internal migration: is there anything new to say? Spatial Economic Analysis, 4(1), 103−120. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421770802625841
Ober-Haus. (2020). Housing prices in Lithuania. https://www.ober-haus.lt/en/ohbi-calculator/
Peng, C.-W., & Tsai, I.-C. (2019). The long- and short-run influences of housing prices on migration. Cities, 93, 253−262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.05.011
Phyo, E. E., Goto, H., & Kakinaka, M. (2019). International migration, foreign direct investment, and development stage in developing economies. Review of Development Economics, 23(2), 940−956. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12577
Plantinga, A., Détang-Dessendre, C., Hunt, G., & Piguet, V. (2013). Housing prices and inter-urban migration. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43, 293−306.
Potepan, M. (1994). Intermetropolitan migration and housing prices: simultaneously determined? Journal of Housing Economics, 3(2), 77−91. https://doi.org/10.1006/jhec.1994.1001
Sá, F. (2015). Immigration and house prices in the UK. The Economic Journal, 125(587), 1393−1424.
Saiz, A. (2007). Immigration and housing rents in American cities. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(2), 345−371.
Sasser, A. C. (2010). Voting with their feet: relative economic conditions and state migration patterns. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 40(2−3), 122−135.
Schundeln, M. (2014). Are immigrants more mobile than natives? Evidence from Germany. Journal of Regional Science, 54(1), 70−95. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12072
Sheather, S. (2009). A modern approach to regression with R. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09608-7
Sira, E., & Dubravska, M. (2015). Current trends of migration in the Slovak Republic (case study). Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 461−466.
Statistics Lithuania. (2020). Official statistics portal. https://osp.stat.gov.lt/
Thomas, M., Gillespie, B., & Lomax, N. (2019). Variations in migration motives over distance. Demographic Research, 40, 1097−1110. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2019.40.38
Tyrcha, A. A. (2020, January). Migration and housing markets – evidence from Sweden. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3394234
Xiaomeng, L., Siyu, H., Jiawei, C., & Qinghua, C. (2020). Analysis of the driving factors of U.S. domestic population mobility. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 539, 122984. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122984
Wang, X., Hui, E., & Sun, J. (2017). Population migration, urbanization and housing prices: evidence from the cities in China. Habitat International, 66, 49−56.
Withers, S. D., Clark, W. A. V., & Ruiz, T. (2008). Demographic variation in housing cost adjustments with US family migration. Population Space and Place, 14(4), 305−325. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.503