Early warning system in managing water infrastructre projects
There is a continuous need to improve existing project management decision-making support models, particularly those for monitoring and control are needed to increase chances for success. In this paper, potential of early warning in project management was focused, along with its connection to project success via project success factors. First, a systematic literature review was conducted, along with the focus group method, in order to identify project success factors. The selected success factors were also collected on 93 water infrastructure projects through a survey. By the means of linear regression analysis, critical success factors were finally determined. The results were integrated in the early warning system algorithm, composed by three modules – detection, validation and response module. The response module is composed by three dimensions: 1) risk, constraint and change management, 2) incorporation of project management competences and 3) application of project management methods, tools and techniques. The proposed early warning system was tested on three infrastructure projects. The results confirmed that improved early warning system can contribute in increase of project management success. As original database is composed by projects from only one country (Croatia), in the final stage of the research proposed approach was checked in five countries from the Central or South East Europe (Czech Republic, Slovenia, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina). The results from the final stage confirmed potential of the proposed approach as declared originally, so it is reasonable to expect success in early warning system’s implementation due to similarities of critical success factors on projects as well as project management problems in general, that countries in regions share. This research presents new and creative way in linking early warning and project success, as well as interpretation of early response through different dimensions in project management. Also, based on the results of this research, it is possible to create a useful practical tool for managing other types of projects.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Ahern, D., Clouse, A., & Turner, R. (2004). A practical introduction to integrated process improvement (2nd ed.). Boston: Addison-Wesley.
Andersen, E. S., & Jessen, S. A. (2003). Project maturity in organizations. International Journal of Project Management, 21(6), 457-461. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00088-1
Anees, M. M., Mohamed, H. E., & Razek, M. E. A. (2013). Evaluation of change management efficiency of construction contractors. HBRC Journal, 9(1), 77-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hbrcj.2013.02.005
Ansoff, H. I. (1975). Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review, 18(2), 21-33. https://doi.org/10.2307/41164635
Ansoff, H. I. (1984). Implanting strategic management. New Jersey: Pretince/Hall International Inc.
Austin, A. (2004). Early warning and the field: a cargo cult science? Transforming ethnopolitical conflict. In B. Austin, V. Dudouet, & H. J. Giessmann (Eds.). Berghof handbook for conflict transformation (pp. 129-150). Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-05642-3_7
Azeem, S. A., Hosny, H. E., & Ibrahim, A. H. (2014). Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models. HBRC Journal, 10(1), 35-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hbrcj.2013.09.002
Baccarini, D. (1999). The logical framework method for defining project success. Project Management Journal, 30(4), 25-32. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697289903000405
Bannerman, P. L. (2008). Defining project success: A multilevel framework. In Proceedings of the Project Management Institute Research Conference (pp. 1-14). Warsaw, Poland.
Besner, C., & Hobbs, B. (2008). Project management practice, generic or contextual: A reality check. Project Management Journal, 39(1), 16-33. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.20033
Burcar Dunovic, I., Radujkovic, M., & Vukomanovic, M. (2016). Internal and external risk based assessment and evaluation for the large infrastructure projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 22(5), 673-682. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2015.1128479
Calgar, J., & Connolly, M. (2007). Interface management: effective information exchange through improved communication. Texas: ABB Value Paper SeriesABB.
Chandra, H. P. (2015). Structural equation model for investigating risk factors affecting project success in Surabaya. Procedia Engineering, 125, 53-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.11.009
Chen, C. S., Tsui, Y. K., Dzeng, R. J., & Wang, W. C. (2015). Application of project-based change management in construction: a case study. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 21(1), 107-118. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2013.802712
Chou, J. S., & Ngo, N. T. (2014). Identifying critical project management techniques and skills for construction professionals to achieving project success. In Proceedings of 2014 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (pp. 1204-1208). Malaysia. https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEM.2014.7058829
Cleland, D. I. (1986). Measuring success: the owner’s viewpoint. In Proceedings of the 18th Annual Seminar/Symposium (pp. 6-12). Montreal, Canada.
Cooke-Davies, T. (2002). The “real” success factors on projects. International Journal of Project Management, 20(3), 185-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00067-9
Cooke-Davies, T. J., & Arzymanow, A. (2003). The maturity of project management in different industries: an investigation into variations between project management models. International Journal of Project Management, 21(6), 471-478. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00084-4
Cooper, R. G. (2005). Product leadership: Pathways to profitable innovation (2nd ed.). New York: Basic Books.
Cooper, R. G., Edgett, S. J., & Kleinschmidt, E. J. (1997). Portfolio management in new product developments: lessons from the leaders. Research-Technology Management, 40(5), 16-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.1997.11671152
Drob, C., & Zichil, V. (2013). Overview regarding the main guidelines, standards and methodologies used in project management. Journal of Engineering Studies and Research, 19(3), 26-31. https://doi.org/10.29081/jesr.v19i3.113
Dvir, D., & Lechler, T. (2004). Plans are nothing, changing plans is everything: the impact of changes on project success. Research Policy, 33(1), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2003.04.001
Enshassi, A., Mohamed, S., & Abushaban, S. (2009). Factors affecting the performance of construction projects in the Gaza strip. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 15(3), 269-280. https://doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2009.15.269-280
Eurostat. (2018). Construction production (volume) index overview. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/index.php/Construction_production_(volume)_ index_overview
Feger, A. L. R., & Thomas, G. A. (2012). A framework for exploring the relationship between project manager leadership style and project success. The International Journal of Management, 1(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2017.30.01
Ferreira, M., Tereso, A., Ribeiro, P., Fernandes, G., & Loureiro, I. (2013). Project management practices in private Portuguese organizations. Procedia Technology, 9, 608-617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.protcy.2013.12.067
Fleming, Q. W., & Koppelman, J. M. (1998, July). Earned value project management: A powerful tool for software project. Crosstalk: The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, 19-23.
Fortune, J., White, D., Jugdev, K., & Walker, D. (2011). Looking again at current practice in project management. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 4(4), 553-572. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538371111164010
Goldratt, E. M. (1997). Critical chain. Great Barrington: The North River Press.
Gudiene, N., Banaitis, A., Podvezko, V., & Banaitiene, N. (2014). Identification and evaluation of the critical success factors for construction projects in Lithuania: AHP approach. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 20(3), 350-359. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2014.914082
Gunathilaka, S., Tuuli, M. M., & Dainty, A. R. (2013). Critical analysis of research on project success in construction management journals. In Proceedings of 29th Annual ARCOM Conference, 2-4 September 2013, Reading, United Kingdom (pp. 979-988).
Haji-Kazemi, S., Andersen, B., & Klakegg, O. J. (2015). Barriers against effective responses to early warning signs in projects. International Journal of Project Management, 33(5), 1068-1083. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.01.002
Haji-Kazemi, S., Andersen, B., & Krane, H. P. (2013). A review on possible approaches for detecting early warning signs in projects. Project Management Journal, 44(5), 55-69. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21360
Havelka, D. & Rajkumar, T. (2006). Using the troubled project recovery framework: problem recognition and decision to recover. E-Service Journal, 5(1), 43-73. https://doi.org/10.2979/esj.2006.5.1.43
Howsawi, E., Eager, D., Bagia, R., & Niebecker, K. (2014). The four-level project success framework: application and assessment. Organisational Project Management, 1(1), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.5130/opm.v1i1.3865
Hwang, B. G., Zhao, X., & Toh, L. P. (2014). Risk management in small construction projects in Singapore: status, barriers and impact. International Journal of Project Management, 32(1), 116-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.01.007
Ika, L. A. (2009). Project success as a topic in project management journals. Project Management Journal, 40(4), 6-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.20137
International Business Machines Corp. (2012). IBM® SPSS® Statistics version 21. Software.
International Project Management Association. (2006). ICB: International Competence Baseline®, version 3.0.
Jaafari, A. (2007). Project and program diagnostics: a systemic approach. International Journal of Project Management, 25(8), 781-790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.05.008
Jari, A. J., & Bhangale, P. P. (2013). To study critical factors necessary for a successful construction project. International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering, 2(5), 331-335.
Jugdev, K., Perkins, D., Fortune, J., White, D., & Walker, D. (2013). An exploratory study of project success with tools, software and methods. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 6(3), 534-551. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-08-2012-0051
Kapliński, O. (2008). Usefulness and credibility of scoring methods in construction industry. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 14(1), 21-28. https://doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2008.14.21-28
Kappelman, L. A., McKeeman, R., & Zhang, L. (2007). Early warning signs of IT project failure: The dominant dozen. EDPACS: The EDP Audit, Control, and Security Newsletter, 35(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1201/1078.10580530/463126.96.36.19960901/95110.4
Kerzner, H. (1987). In search of excellence in project management. Journal of Systems Management, 38(2), 30-39.
Kerzner, H. (2001). Strategic planning for project management using a maturity model. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Khosravi, S., & Afshari, H. (2011). A success measurement model for construction projects. In Proceedings of International Conference on Financial Management and Economics (IPEDR) (pp. 186-190). Singapore.
Kim, B. C. (2007). Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods (Doctoral dissertation). Texas A&M University, United States of America.
Kim, E. H., Wells Jr., W. G., & Duffey, M. R. (2003). A model for effective implementation of earned value management methodology. International Journal of Project Management, 21(5), 375-382. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00049-2
Kitzinger, J. (2005). Focus group research: using group dynamics to explore perceptions, experiences and understandings. In I. Holloway (Ed.), Qualitative research in health care (pp. 5670). Maidenhead: Open University Press.
Klakegg, O. J., Andersen, B., Williams, T., Walker, D., & Magnussen, O. M. (2010). Early warning signs in complex projects. Newton Square: Project Management Institute.
Kuusi, O. (1999). Teknologisen kehityksen heikot signaalit. Futura, 18(2).
Leavy, P. (2014). The Oxford handbook of qualitative research. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199811755.001.0001
Lee, H. S., Lee, K. P., Park, M., Baek, Y., & Lee, S. (2011). RFIDbased real-time locating system for construction safety management. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 26(3), 366-377. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000144
Leszak, M., Perry, D. E., & Stoll, D. (2000). A case study in root cause defect analysis. In Proceedings of 22nd International Conference on Software Engineering (pp. 428-437). Limerick, Ireland. https://doi.org/10.1145/337180.337232
Lim, C. S., & Mohamed, M. Z. (1999). Criteria of project success: an exploratory re-examination. International Journal of Project Management, 17(4), 243-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00040-4
Liu, H., Skibniewski, M. J., & Wang, M. (2016). Identification and hierarchical structure of critical success factors for innovation in construction projects: Chinese perspective. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 22(3), 401-416. https://doi.hr/10.3846/13923730.2014.975739
Lowe, D. (2016). Use early warning indicators as a management tool. Retrieved from http://www.dolowe.org
Mavrotas, G., Caloghirou, Y., & Koune, J. (2005). A model on cash flow forecasting and early warning for multi-project programmes: application to the Operational Programme for the Information Society in Greece. International Journal of Project Management, 23(2), 121-133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.07.009
McLeod, L., Doolin, B., & MacDonell, S. G. (2012). A perspective‐based understanding of project success. Project Management Journal, 43(5), 68-86. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21290
Microsoft Corporation. (2010). Microsoft Excel®. Software.
Miller, R., & Lessard, D. R. (2000). The strategic management of large engineering projects: Shaping institutions, risks, and governance. Cambridge: MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/6478.001.0001
Mir, F. A., & Pinnington, A. H. (2014). Exploring the value of project management: Linking project management performance and project success. International Journal of Project Management, 32(2), 202-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.05.012
Molenaar, K. R., Javernick-Will, A., Bastias, A. G., Wardwell, M. A., & Saller, K. (2013). Construction project peer reviews as an early indicator of project success. Journal of Management in Engineering, 29(4), 327-333. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000149
Montgomery, D. C., & Runger, G. C. (2014). Applied statistics and probability for engineers. New Jersey: Wiley.
Muller, R., & Turner, R. (2007). The influence of project managers on project success criteria and project success by type of project. European Management Journal, 25(4), 298-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2007.06.003
Nahod, M. M. (2014). Impact of competent managing the changes on project success (Doctoral dissertation). Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, Croatia.
Nahod, M. M., Vukomanovic, M., & Radujkovic, M. (2013). The impact of ICB 3.0 competences on project management success. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 74, 244-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.03.014
Navon, R., & Kolton, O. (2006). Model for automated monitoring of fall hazards in building construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132(7), 733-740. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:7(733)
Nikander, I., & Eloranta, E. (2001). Project management by early warnings. International Journal of Project Management, 19(7), 385-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(00)00021-1
Nikander, I. O. (2002). Early warnings: A phenomenon in project management (Doctoral dissertation). Helsinki University of Technology, Finland.
Niwa, K. (1989). Knowledge-based risk management in engineering. New York: Wiley.
Ohatka, F., & Fukazawa, Y. (2009). Managing risk symptom: a method to identify major risks of serious problem projects in SI environment using cyclic causal model. Project Management Journal, 41(1), 51-60. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.20144
Osborn, A. F. (1953). Applied imagination: Principles and procedures of creative problem solving (3rd ed.). New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons.
Parker, S. K., & Skitmore, M. (2005). Project management turnover: causes and effects on project performance. International Journal of Project Management, 23(3), 205-214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.10.004
Patanakul, P., Iewwongcharoen, B., & Milosevic, D. (2010). An empirical study on the use of project management tools and techniques across project life-cycle and their impact on project success. Journal of General Management, 35(3), 41-65. https://doi.org/10.1177/030630701003500304
Philip, T., Schwabe, G., & Wende, E. (2010). Identifying early warning signs of failures in offshore software development projects – A Delphi survey. In Proceedings of the 16th Americas Conference on Information Systems (pp. 462-470). Lima, Peru.
Pinto, J. K., & Slevin, D. P. (1988). Critical success factors across the project life cycle. Project Management Journal, 19(3), 6775.
Pinto, J. K., & Slevin, D. P. (1992). Project implementation profile. SAD: XICOM Inc.
PricewaterhouseCoopers. (2012). PWC insights and trends: Current portfolio, programme and project management practices – 3rd Global survey on the current state of project management. PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited. Retrieved from https://www.pwc.com.tr/en/publications/arastirmalar/pages/pwc-global-project-management-report-small.pdf
PricewaterhouseCoopers. (2014). Capital project and infrastructure spending: Outlook to 2025. PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited. Retrieved from https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/capital-projects-infrastructure/publications/cpioutlook/assets/cpi-outlook-to-2025.pdf
Project Management Institute. (2013). Project management body of knowledge guide (5th ed.).
Project Management Institute. (2016). The high cost of low performance: How will you improve business results? Retrieved from http://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/learning/thought-leadership/pulse/pulse-of-the-profession-2016.pdf
Radujkovic, M. (2014). Project management and its impact on society in 21st century. Keynote lecture. In Seminario Internacional Direccion de Proyectos Desafious Actuales y futures. Santiago de Chile, Pontifica Universidad Catolica de Chile, Centro de Extension UC Alameda.
Radujkovic, M., & Sjekavica, M. (2017). Project management success factors. Procedia Engineering, 196, 607-615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.08.048
Radujkovic, M., Car Pusic, D., Ostojic Skomrlj, N., Vukomanovic, M., Burcar Dunovic, I., Delic, D., & Mestrovic, H. (2012). Planiranje i kontrola projekata. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering.
Rushton, A., Croucher, P., & Baker, P. (2010). The handbook of logistics and distribution management (4th ed.). London: Kogan Page.
Sambasivan, M., & Soon, W. Y., (2007). Causes and effects of delays in Malaysian construction industry. International Journal of Project Management, 25(5), 517-526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.11.007
Savage, G. T., Nix, T. W., Whitehead, C. J., & Blair, J. D. (1991). Strategies for assessing and managing organizational stakeholders. Academy of Management Perspectives, 5(2), 6-75. https://doi.org/10.5465/ame.1991.4274682
Schoper, Y.-G., Wald, A., Thor Ingason, H., & Vikingur Fridgeirsson, T. (2018). Projectification in Western economies: A comparative study of Germany, Norway and Iceland. International Journal of Project Management, 6(1), 71-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.07.008
Serpell, A., Ferrada, X., & Rubio, N. L. (2017). Fostering the effective usage of risk management in construction. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 23(7), 858-867. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2017.1321578
Shenhar, A. J. (2001). One size does not fit all projects: Exploring classical contingency domains. Management Science, 47(3), 394-414. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.3.394.9772
Sjekavica, M. (2017). Early warning system in managing construction projects (Doctoral dissertation). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering.
Skibniewski, M. J. (2014). Information technology applications in construction safety assurance. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 20(6), 778-794. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2014.987693
Spjelkavik, I., Andersen, B., Onsoyen, L. E., Fagerhaug, T., & Marheim, H. (2008). Project performance management system: a conceptual framework for early warnings in projects. In Proceedings of the 22nd IPMA World Congress (pp. 89-93). Rome, Italy.
Standish Group. (2013). Chaos manifesto 2013 – Think big, act small. Retrieved from https://www.immagic.com/eLibrary/ARCHIVES/.../S130301C.pdf
Stroebe, W., Diehl, M., & Abakoumkin, G. (1992). The illusion of group effectivity. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18(5), 643-650. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167292185015
Vanhoucke, M. (2012). Measuring the efficiency of project control using fictitious and empirical project data. International Journal of Project Management, 30(2), 252-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.05.006
Vondruska, M. (2014). Early warning system for detection of the crisis in construction projects. In Proceedings of Creative Construction Conference 2014 (pp. 383-388). Prague, Czech Republic.
Voss, M. (2012). Impact of customer integration on project portfolio management and its success: developing a conceptual framework. International Journal of Project Management, 30(5), 567-581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.01.017
Wang, K., Zhang, X., Wang, X., & Yu, J. (2009). Establishment of construction safety early-warning system for mountainous freeways. In Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of Chinese Transportation Professionals (ICCTP). Harbin, China. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784410646
Wateridge, J. (2002). (Post) project evaluation review. In Project Management Pathways (pp. 65-1-65-12). High Wycombe: Association for Project Management.
Whitty, S. J. (2010). Project management artifacts and the emotions they evoke. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 3(1), 22-45. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538371011014017
Williams, T., Klakegg, O. J., Walker, D. H. T., Andersen, B., & Magnussen, O. M. (2012). Identifying and acting on early warning signs in complex projects. Project Management Journal, 43(2), 37-53. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21259
Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., & Tamosaitiene, J. (2010), Risk assessment of construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 16(8), 33-46. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2010.03