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Modelling the transmission dynamics of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia in the presence of antibiotic treatment with limited medical supply

    Achamyelesh A. Aligaz   Affiliation
    ; Justin M. W. Munganga   Affiliation

Abstract

We present and analyze a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in the presence of antibiotic treatment with limited medical supply. We use a saturated treatment function to model the effect of delayed treatment. We prove that there exist one disease free equilibrium and at most two endemic equilibrium solutions. A backward bifurcation occurs for small values of delay constant such that two endemic equilibriums exist if Rt ∈ (Rt,1); where, Rt is the treatment reproduction number and Rt is a threshold such that the disease dies out if and persists in the population if Rt > Rt. However, when a backward bifurcation occurs, a disease free system may easily be shifted to an epidemic. The bifurcation turns forward when the delay constant increases; thus, the disease free equilibrium becomes globally asymptotically stable if Rt < 1, and there exist unique and globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium if Rt > 1. However, the amount of maximal medical resource required to control the disease increases as the value of the delay constant increases. Thus, antibiotic treatment with limited medical supply setting would not successfully control CBPP unless we avoid any delayed treatment, improve the efficacy and availability of medical resources or it is given along with vaccination.

Keyword : contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, backward bifurcation, equilibria, treatment reproduction number, stability and threshold value

How to Cite
Aligaz, A. A., & Munganga, J. M. W. (2021). Modelling the transmission dynamics of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia in the presence of antibiotic treatment with limited medical supply. Mathematical Modelling and Analysis, 26(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.3846/mma.2021.11795
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Jan 18, 2021
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