MARKET CAPACITY AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR FROM LOGISTIC ANALYSIS VIEW

The paper deals with market capacity and the integral parts of it. one of the most critical consisting parts of the market’s capacity are market niches, the fulfilment of which depends on market openness or closeness. in the opened market there is a possibility of reproduction, while for the closed market the saturation is more typical. However, reproduction and saturation have one similar feature: both influence the beginning of a crisis. The main difference between reproduction and saturation is in reproduction’s possibility to create a new market niches driven by globalization, innovation and the growth of the living standards of population. a creation of the new market niche in case of saturation is not possible because of the consumers’ expectations. The return on investments in the closed market is growing exactly at the moment when the market niche approaches zero. at the same time people tend to invest into this market with a hope to get the highest profits. This finally leads to the bubble formation. The paper aims to define the main factors influencing markets’ niches saturation and seeks to apply logistical capital theory for assessment of market saturation level for the prediction of forthcoming economic crisis.


Introduction
The concept of market has a major role in the science of Economics. one of the most common definitions states that market is a resource distribution system which helps to produce goods. Market helps to coordinate activities of different economic subjects and to satisfy consumer's needs. However, market is different from any kind of fair or the place in which selling-buying agreements are made; therefore, there is a need to analyze market from more general point of view. The role of market could be defined by its functions. The main function of market is a creation of transitional link between production and consuming creation. Thus, market has a great influence on all major spheres of production, namely on its: quantity, structure, growing speed, the quality of products, range of products, and other identifications of national product production as well as quantitative and qualitative end consumption of the product (Carbaugh 2006). The second important function of the market is the sales of the produced production and confirmation of its universal use. if a definite product or service could not be sold it means the usefulness of such item was not recognized and do not satisfy consumer needs.
it could be stated that both individual investments and economics on the whole act in one definite space which could be named as a market. Market is an exchange sphere in which buying and selling processes are made. as a result, market could be analyzed from different aspects and differentiated by various features. Market on itself could be classified as big (capacious), small or transitional. in other words, market could be saturated by one type of products (which is named as a capital), partly saturated or free. in the current work it will be analyzed the market occupancy level and will be evaluated methods (opportunities) to measure it.
according to S. Girdzijauskas potential market is a maximum quantity of the capital which could be efficiently invested in some definite market. Such investments could be counted by absolute value (money) or by the usage of values during a time unit (Girdzijauskas 2002(Girdzijauskas , 2005(Girdzijauskas , 2008.
in the current work potential market is understood as a market potential or market's opportunity to absorb the biggest quantity of the capital. real market is a functional market in which selling -buying transactions are made. also a real market is a potential market's part which is already filled by the capital. at the same time potential's market part which is not occupied by real market could be identified as the niche of the market.
Market could be differentiated by the type of selling goods in it. Dependently on the main role in the market there are distinguished producers or consumers (Pranulis et al. 2008). Furthermore, market is segmented by the same requirements to the products, services or similar buyer motivation. The criteria of the market segmentation are following: capacity, the number of buyers, density, allocation, availability of the segment, stability of the segment, profitability of the segment, level of competition and the securities from potential competition. all types of segmentation could be relatively classified into following groups (Stanton et al. 1991): 1. Segmentation by consumers external features (geographical, demographical, income and age factors). 2. Segmentation by buyer behavior based on goods segmentation.
The main goal of the paper is to find out factors that influence markets' niches saturation system.
additional goals of the current work are following: To identify closed and opened market capacity and market saturation basing on logistical capital theory; To identify factors which influences the market's niches fulfilment (saturation); To identify factors which have the most intensive influence on the saturation of markets' niches.
The objects of the current paper are the capacity of the market, market openness/ closeness of market, market niches, market fulfilment (saturation) factors which influence economic growth fluctuations.

Capacity of the market
Market as an intermediary between consumers and producers by the change in the prices informs producers on what kind of goods or services consumers spend most and what type of goods and services could be sold at the highest price. as a result, producers of goods and services try to produce such king of goods and services and in such quantity which would allow them to sell out all produced production or full complex of services and in the end provide the highest profit. The maximum quantity of the capital which could be efficiently used in the market is identified as a market capacity (Knyviene et al. 2010).
Existing market prices also influences resource market, namely it helps producers to decide how to produce, what resources to use in order to minimize producing expenses. as the products and recourses are sold for definite prices, the owners of the resources are interested to use resources as much as possible economically, while consumers are interested to use products as much as possible economically.
in the market the main interexchange is made between producer and consumer, therefore, producer is interested to know how many consumers will be able to purchase his product. it follows with the relevance of present and potential market analysis and counting. The capacity of market depends on potential number of purchasers. The same topic was analyzed by Perpers and rogers (1995) who were doing research on the market share of the company by counting the number of their existing and potential customers.
as it was already mentioned the market could be potential and real (Girdzijauskas, Streimikiene 2008;Girdzijauskas 2008;Girdzijauskas et al. 2008aGirdzijauskas et al. , b, 2009a. Potential market is a maximum quantity of the capital which could be efficiently invested in a certain market. Such investments could be counted by absolute value (money) or usage of values during certain time unit (Bodie et al. 2001;Biel, Johansson-Stenman 2011).
For better market capacity understanding analysis of the Fig. 1 is provided.
1. all market consumers will be outsourced according to their needs -only consumers with a certain need will be selected; 2. However, consumers with a certain need for a certain product or service not always have sufficient financial resources to purchase current type of product and/or service; 3. Consumers with sufficient financial resources for a definite product/service might have no legal right to purchase a current type of product/service. only after "outsourcing" or segmentation of consumers and eliminating consumers without a certain need for a product/service, consumers without enough money and consumers without legal right to purchased product or service it could be identified real consumers who are consumers using a product or a service of the market.
By identifying all consumers who does not have special need for a certain product/ service, enough financial or legal right to buy the product/service, we have a possibility to identify real consumers, i.e. consumers who are using product or service of the market, in other words market consumers. Consumers with a right to buy the product and willing to buy it Existing product consumers, i.e. market consumers as it was just demonstrated we have a possibility to identify and consider many levels of the market and to evaluate each level's potential (opportunities) and factors which are influencing transaction from the potential market to the real market. all in all, the definitions of the real (existing) market and potential market are identified. real (existing) market and potential market are market niches, or capital niches, Fig. 2.
Both equations are similar by their core idea since market's identifying interexchange have the main aim which is involvement of the consumer's capital.
or according to S. Girdzijauskas (2005) opinion the following equation could be used: Capital Niche = Potential capital -Real Capital.
(2) also in analyzing of these two equations there are two unknown quantities which are market niche or Capital niche and Potential market or Capital potential since real market or real capital already exists de facto.
as it was already mentioned the real market exists de facto. it could be assumed that we are aware of the size of market niche, therefore, the demand of market potential could be estimated and considering this information, the real supply could counted and provided.
Market's capacity, real market comprehension, market niches and other definitions are essential for logistic models description. one of them is capital saving model, which is also called as future value model, or alternatively real capital counting model:

Real capital =
Market's capacity × compound interest for n periods .
(3) Initial niche + compound interest of n periods in this equation there could be analysed interaction of the real capital and initial niche which is in some definite cases is the general capital niche, also there are involved compound interests of n periods, i.e. initial capital significant which is counted using compound interest for n periods in the future (Girdzijauskas et al. 2009a).
Market capacity is a quantity of market which is in investing environment could be productively acquired; in a certain territory during certain period of time the biggest amount of sold products or services which is evaluated by natural (barter) or monetary terms. The significant of market capacity is usually applied in monetary units for expressing in logistical models.
Real market scope (real capital or investment scope) is an invested capital, a capital which is a part of potential capital.
Market niche is not used part of market capacity (potential capital) or the difference between market capacity and the scope of real market.

Market's saturation
By producing and sale of the same category of products of service market capacity is gradually filled, consequently, the saturation of market is reached. Moreover, in order it would be possible to fill the market it has to be ended (final). it could be supposed that endless market could not be saturated.
according to Girdzijauskas and Štreimikienė (2010) opinion initially and for quite long period of time the quantities of production are much higher than existing demand which leads to overproduction effect. overproduction is a market situation in which there are more production units than potential market could use it. overproduction often influences the decrease of prices, the lowering demand of working force, and decrease of the demand in other fields of production. To avoid reproduction it is needed to increase demand or to decrease supply. The increased level of the demand improves level of consumption, encourages the growth of GDP; furthermore, the lowering of supply has negative effect on economics of the country Girdzijauskas et al. (2009b). Now it could be concluded that in order to encourage economical growth it is required to encourage consumption as well. Which steps could encourage the growth?
S. Girdzijauskas and D. Štreimikienė (2010) considers that the right steps in such situation could be globalization, innovation and improving standards of living. alternatively it could be encouraged level of consumption and management of consumer behavior.
Moreover, S. Girdzijauskas (2005) claims that markets are closed or opened. also there are transitional markets which could be considered as semi closed markets. in general, market's capacity could be compared to storage or reservoir which is filled by certain substances (such as gas or liquid). These reservoirs could be also divided into opened and closed. investments in such markets could be compared to the mentioned reservoirs filling of some certain substance (Girdzijauskas et al. 2009a, b). opened reservoirs could be assimilated with opened market. Such reservoirs would be filled by a liquid by a low pressure. Excess of the liquid would flow into different reservoirs or would just flow out.
That would reflect the investment's transmission to another markets or even unprofitable investment. in terms of products and service markets that would be the search of new markets which is globalization and creation of new higher competing production which could be identified as innovation.
The situation in such market becomes very interesting; in the situation of traditional exponential capital point of view it could be reflected by the equation (Girdzijauskas 2002(Girdzijauskas , 2005: where K -function of potential capital growing, K 0 -initial capital, i -the rate of interest, t -saving time. reflection of this equation could be viewed in the Fig. 3 (Girdzijauskas 2008). From this graphics it could be seen that "reservoir" is opened, in other words it contains desired quantity of the "liquid". and this was proved by aristotle's chrematistic's goals.
Closed or semi closed market could be assimilated with closed reservoirs in which liquid is supplied by low and then gradually increasing pressure (because of always growing pressure inside). Here the pressure of liquid could be compared to the norm of investments of interest rate. if market was filled maximally the invested capital would increase the maximum capacity of market from several till twenty percentages. This is influenced by reservoir elasticity and in the case of overflow it could be partly extended.
This may happen with investments, products or services which could not be transmitted into new markets, are also influenced by mechanism of globalizations, do not accept innovations, do not influence the consumer behavior, and leaves the discoing making process for first urgency products. in such cases the market is saturated. This is possible only in closed or semi-closed market.
in the reality in closed or semi closed markets saturation has its ultimate expression. The more market is closed the higher is the level of overflow pressure in the case of market niche lowering. This is reflected into the following logistical equation of growing (Girdzijauskas et al. 2009a): where: K -function of potential capital growing, K 0 -initial capital, K p -potential capital's maximum (extreme) value, i -interest rate, t -saving time, which is demonstrated in the following graphics in the Fig. 4 (Girdzijauskas 2008). as it could be seen there is a limit achieving of which will initiate the suspension of growth or blow up of the reservoir. However, there should not be neglected reservoir's capability to overflow especially considering the fact that the reservoir is elastic and is able to keep more liquid when it's real volume is. For blowing up of reservoir there should be upcoming pressure (the norm of interest rate investment). in practice such event could be observed by formation of price bubble.

Market saturation factors
Market is an area of exchange in which selling and buying processes are happening. There would be no market if consumers did not purchase offering products or services, consequently, we could assume that in consumer's decisions to buy one or another product or service the most pivotal role has consumer behaviour (Kotler 2003;Kotler, armstrong 2010;Kotler, Keller 2007;Guven 2012). indeed, consumer behviour could be named as one of the most important factors filling the market niche.
Following stated hypothesis it is logical to analyse consumers' behaviour influence on market niche filling.
By buying one or another product a consumer evaluates relationship of price and value. The decision to buy the product is made then the consumer considers that the value is higher than the price. Byus and Lomerson (2004) have reflected consumers and sellers understanding of value in the following equations (6-8). The explanation of variables is presented in Table 1.
2 2 V B P = − (Expectation that the purchased value is higher than the paid price); 1 V P Q = ⋅ (Consumers gained capital influencing on GDP), where: Q is the number of market's consumer. When ( ) 0 Q − → , all possible market's consumers are purchasing the product or service and the market becomes saturated, i.e. V 1 is a potential concrete product or market service. Using S. Girdzijauskas definition of potential market it could be stated that maximum quantity of market could be efficiently (rationally) invested into a definite market, therefore, it could be assumed that by saturating market non-rational investment will be initiated which will lead to capital's niche over fulfilment.
it's obvious that it could be observed a direct dependence of V 1 on V 0 and the dependence of V 0 on V 2 , which means that V 1 is not directly dependant on V 2 .
it was just demonstrated that potential market's capital depends on price and the number of consumers. Thus, it should be analyzed the difference of price and the change of consumer behaviour which influence the number of consumers and potential market's capital.
There are such products and services which demand is lower than its supply and the purchase of such products initiates speculative actions which are based on purchaser's intention to earn from purchased products more in the future. Similar behaviour is typical for all market's participants -valuable securities are bought with expectation that in the future the cost of them will exceed. according to Buys and Lomerson (2004) by applying a time factor P = constant since it was purchased previously and consequently B 2 , and V 2 are growing.
in the nutshell, we could make a conclusion that in the closed market by market niche lowering the demand of the product or service will grow exponentially increasing the cost of it as it demonstrated in the Fig. 4.
When the market is filled and becoming closed the following two scenarios of consumer behaviour are possible: 1. Supply is clearly exceeds real (not speculative) demand, as the result, consumer tries to increase their V 2 by lowering P as much as possible. 2. Demand is clearly expressed and it strongly exceeds supply, therefore, independently from size of P, consumer reaches the goal to get B 2 , since the final V 2 is very important to consumer by clear reasons to him. The first scenario examples could be taken from real estate bubbles which are formed when the demand is created artificially (speculative, atistotel's chrematistic, aims). Secondly, it could the bubbles which are based on prices of special products such as pieces of art created by already dead artists, antiques, precious stones, etc.  Moskaliova and Girdzijauskas (2006) states that formation of bubbles there are needed two typical conditions: fundamental and psychological. The fist condition is related with exhausting of growing space, while the second reason is related with a desire to earn and to get profit. The formation of the bubble precedes two stages: in the fundamental stage market increases the return on the capital (makes a signal about growing profit) as the result of resources increased exhaustion. The second stage (psychological) is based on desire of high-on-return investment and to earn more. The first reason creates the soil for "bubble" formation, while the second defines its size (Moskaliova, Girdzijauskas 2006). The scheme of formation of bubbles is presented in Fig. 5 Fig. 5. The scheme of formation of bubbles (Moskaliova, Girdzijauskas 2006) as it could be seen the main reason of transition from fundamental market growth to psychological market growth is the consumers' expectations. Thus, it could be concluded that niches fulfilment (speed of saturation) depends on potential capital involvement which on its turn depends on consumers' behaviour, i.e. aristotle's chrematistic goals.
For managing market's niche fulfilment there should be dedicated a special focus on existing customers and specifically it should be analyzed potential customer's expectations.
Basing on information of National Bureau of Economical researchers the following economical cycles characteristics is expressed: fluctuations and economic activeness, expansion (growth), peak, growth, decline, recession, falling; there are two breaking points of the economical equilibrium: economical peak and economical crisis extremes.
in the graphics it is noticed that consumer's expectations are connected at the point "D", since economic grow has reached pre-crisis point. The further growing expectations initiates the formation of so called "bubble" basing on exponential function of the capital (Fig. 6).
The real GDP can vary from nominal GDP. The factual alteration can be different from nominal and they are reflected by GDP defilation. The fluctuations changes of factual GDP from potential GDP creates the GDP niche (GDP gap) where: V¹ -involvement of factual capital; V¹p -involvement of potential capital. Potential GDP is reached by absolute exhaustion of the resources involving the potential market's capital.
if the resources are not fully used, GDP will have negative significant. This means that market's niche has opportunity to be additionally filled.
Using the Eq. (10) the following equations were developed: By simplifying this mathematical equation we will get the following equation: it is essential to know existing Q, and potential Q p and number of consumers in order to consider the factual capital involvement and to count market's size of niche.
in real business environment there should be also considered consumers' expectations and the cyclic economics from which new dimensions are formed.
as the result the Eq. (12) becomes more complicated While expectations are positive, i.e. consumer hopes that for the invested capital into the market (into product or service) he is paying less than he gets value form it, consequently, GDP gap remains negative.
in this way it is developed dependence of GDP niche fulfilment on potential capital. The potential involvement of the capital into capital's niche has a direct connection with the number of consumers and their behaviour evaluating invested capital via potential (received benefit from the capital in the future) expectations.
returning to the Fig. 1, it could be concluded that by segmentation of consumers there should be mostly considered about formation of consumer needs and future consumer expectations. analyzing the following consumers' level it is noticed financial influence on market niche fulfilment. in this part the main focus is concentrated on money lending institutions which are banks. Crediting or money lending conditions are one of the main significant factors for signing a loan contract while consumer's ability to pay the credit back is the main factor to provide a credit. all in all, in the Fig. 7 it could be seen that market niche's fulfilment requires following factors: -Closeness of the market; -Peculiarities of consumer behaviour; -Consumer income; -Conditions of loan withdrawing if it is needed for purchase of product or service; -Legal basis; -Consumer behaviour peculiarities. indeed, it could be emphasized that from 6 factors influencing the market niche's fulfilment two factors are connected with peculiarities of consumer behaviour.

All consumers
Consumers with a speci c need Consumers with su cent nancial resources Consumers with legal right to purchse the product and willing to buy the product e existing consumers who has purchased the product, which has lled the markter's and capitalniche

Consumer behaviour
Consumer behaviour is based on analysis of when, why, how, and where people do or do not buy a product. it combines elements from psychology, sociology, social anthropology and economics. it attempts to understand the buyer decision making process, both individually and in groups. The characteristics of individual consumers such as demographics and behavioural variables in an attempt to understand people's wants are also very important. it also aims to define the impact on consumer from groups such as family, friends, reference groups, and society in general. Customer behaviour study is based on consumer buying behaviour, with the customer playing the three distinct roles of user, payer and buyer (Pranulis et al. 2008). research has shown that consumer behaviour is difficult to predict as psychology and culture play an important role (Petruzyte 2013). relationship marketing is an influential asset for customer behaviour analysis as it has a keen interest in the rediscovery of the true meaning of marketing through the reaffirmation of the importance of the customer or buyer. a greater importance is also placed on consumer retention, customer relationship management, personalisation, customisation and one-to-one marketing. Social functions can be categorized into social choice and welfare functions. Consumer behaviour is a hotbed of psychological research, as it ties together issues of communication (advertising and marketing), identity (you are what you buy), social status (among peers and potential mates), decision-making, and mental and physical health (Biel, Johansson-Stenman 2011;van Dam, van Trijp 2011).
Most empirical models of choice in economics and consumer research assume that the decision maker assesses all alternatives and information in a perfect information-processing sense. However emotions have a strong influence on economic behaviour and decision making. Explanations of many behavioural anomalies exist that exclude such emotions as important elements, but this may be an oversight -might it be that specific emotions are necessary causes for such behaviours rather than merely playing a supporting role (Stanton et al. 1991;Swait, adamowicz 2001;Summers, Duxbury 2012;McDonald, Christopher 2003).
There are three main applications of consumer behaviour: Marketing strategy; Social marketing and Public policy (Fischbache, Quercia 2012). More research is necessary to understand the peculiarities of consumer behaviour as this has direct impact on market saturation process and creation of economic bubbles. application of consumer behaviour in public policy is very important challenge as it allows creating appropriate policies for mitigation of market saturation process and allows to some extending avoiding deep economic crisis caused by economic bubbles formations.
The synthesis of economics and psychology in consumer behaviour theories is an impressive case of social science collaboration but it does not go far enough in light of the effects of the marketing-oriented economy on consumer choice. The need to incorporate marketing variables has led to the development of consumer behaviour analysis (Hodgkinson et al. 2011) which brings together the theories and findings of marketing science and behaviour analysis/behavioural economics. recent research in this field has included the whole gamut of experimental and quasi-experimental work from tight laboratory formulations of the traditional kind to more open investigations of consumer behaviour in simulated and natural environments. Consumer behaviour analysis is a broadly conceived framework of analysis that draws on economic psychology, behavioural economics and marketing and whose content ranges from the experimental studies we have noted to philosophical, theoretical and non-experimental empirical studies of consumer choice in relation to its situational determinants (Hodgkinson et al. 2011).
Understanding peculiarities of consumer behaviour is significant since it defines the recognition and acceptance of the need by a consumer and creates the final decision in participation in the market by investing consumer capital, i.e. filling the capital's niche (Kotler 2003;Mc Donald, Christopher 2003).
Economical cycles attack the growth of capital by logistical function applying. The great influence on consumer's expectation has satisfaction or dissatisfaction of them (Grundey 2008;Girdzijauskas, Štreimikienė 2009).

Conclusions
if it would returned to aristotle's organization and understanding of the domestic activity there would be noticed that each market's participant has chrematistic aims which is enriching his own property. as the participation in market interexchange has only one aim -getting bigger benefit into the comparison that was invested in the past. in this way there is accumulated a need to increase capital by getting a market niche.
Consumer, organization and market value, which are gained in the result of market interexchange, are different. These values of consumer, organization and market are united by expectations that capital is going to grow by exponential growth.
While the market is opened and could be influenced by globalization, innovations, growing level of living standards and etc. it will exist a growing tendency in the market until the reproduction is active. This means that there is more production in the market than it could be used. reproduction frequently has a declining or even recession effect on prices, working force demand, other areas of production.
While market is closed the growth will continue until the market niche is overfilled. By involving consumer's capital into market niche it is fulfilled and the growing suspends. Depending on niche fulfilling reasons, which could speculative or natural, the demand declines or continues to grow even more intensively.
Market capacity depends on real market and sizes of market niches. By knowing the factors which influence the market niche fulfilment there would be possible to observe alteration dynamics of those factors and there could be found the ways how to influence those factors.
Market Niches Fulfilment Factors: closeness of the market; peculiarities of consumer behaviour -expectations about future benefit; consumer income; crediting conditions; legal basis and consumer behaviour peculiarities.
The greatest influence on market niche fulfilment has the level of market closeness and consumer behaviour peculiarities.
Considering business as an art of getting potential capital into market niche from consumers' pocket without any violence there should be constantly working on creation of consumer's demand and consumer expectation's satisfactions. all in all, the objective of the article has been reached -there was proved hypothesis that for market's potential realization, i.e. potential capital involvement and usage, the pivotal role has consumer behaviour and adopted management of it.
He was working at Vilnius University since 1975. The Dean of Kaunas Faculty of Humanities of Vilnius University in the period 2002-2008. Dr S. Girdzijauskas is the author of almost 100 scientific publications and 6 books. He developed logistic theory of finance management and wrote the monograph "Logistic capital management theory: deterministic methods". in investigation of limited growth resources, S. Girdzijauskas explored such economic phenomenon as economic burbles, investigated the reasons of such bubbles formation and economic cycles, globalization and technical progress impact on such phenomena.
Dalia ŠTREIMIKIENĖ is a senior research fellow at the Social Cultural institute of Kaunas Faculty of Humanities, Vilnius University. The main areas of research are: environmental policy, energy policy and economic tools of environmental regulation in energy sector. Prof. Dr Dalia Štreimikienė holds PhD in Economics. She is professor and Leading research associate at Vilnius University Kaunas Faculty of Humanities. D. Štreimikienė has experience in various projects related to sustainable development, environmental and climate change mitigation policies. She also has experience in consumer behaviour and business ethics. The main area of her research is sustainability assessment of policies, technologies and products in energy field, development of indicator frameworks for sustainability assessment.